Abstract
The Long Run Impact of Medical School Construction on the Geographic Distribution of Physicians and Health Outcomes
Caitlin Carroll, PhD, Assistant Professor, Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota
Thomas Helgerman, PhD, Assistant Professor, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota
Physician shortages, especially in rural areas, are a significant concern to policymakers given the graying of the rural population. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of medical school construction on the local supply of physicians and on local mortality rates with a focus on rural areas. The empirical context is the Health Manpower Policy (HMP), a federal program that provided funding for medical school construction in the 1960s and 1970s and spurred construction at 37 new medical schools. The team will estimate the effect of medical school construction using a difference-in-differences design, in which they compare changes in physician supply and mortality in counties that opened new medical schools to contemporaneous changes in counties that were similar but did not experience a medical school opening. They will also evaluate spillover effects of medical school construction on rural and urban counties that were close to the new school (e.g., in the same state) but did not open a new medical school. This research will provide the first evidence on the long-run consequences of medical school construction and will serve as a model for investigating the effects of more recent (post-2000) medical school construction on health outcomes.
LCC Research Theme: Health care services and supports for an aging population